Dylan Bundy: A Sunday in Hagerstown

On Sunday I had the opportunity to witness Dylan Bundy's latest start for the Delmarva Shorebirds in Hagerstown against the Suns.  I sat in the third row right behind the plate so I had a really good view of the action.  Directly behind me were an Orioles scout (I didn't get his name), Parker Bridwell and Tim Berry who were charting the Shorebirds pitchers.  Bridwell and Berry are also starting pitchers for the Shorebirds, Bridwell even made some Orioles top prospect lists.  Since I'm not anything close to a scout and don't own a radar gun, all of my velocity readings came from the gun that Parker was holding.  It was certainly an interesting perspective to watch a game.  There was also a gaggle of scouts standing behind our section who I'm sure were all there to see Bundy.  Here's Bundy from my viewpoint.

From the opening pitch, Bundy didn't disappoint.  He started the game throwing only his fastball, which ranged from 95-98 mph.  The first batter flew out softly to center, so he started the 2nd batter Cutter Dykstra (yes, he's Lenny Dykstra's son) with a steady stream of fastballs as well.  Cutter fouled a couple off and worked a full count.  After throwing only fastballs to this point, he dropped a 75 mph curveball over the inner half that completely fooled the right handed Dykstra who couldn't take the bat off of his shoulder.  Strikeout looking on a very impressive front door curveball that looked like it broke over a foot down and away from him.  He threw a couple more fastballs to the next hitter, who lined out to center.  First inning completed, and the only curveball of the day.

The first hitter of the 2nd inning was the Suns most dangerous hitter, Matthew Skole.  Again, Bundy threw mostly fastballs but he mixed in a 87 mph changeup which had late downward movement.  Bundy struck him out swinging on a 97 mph fastball with a little cut action.  2 strikeouts through 4 batters.  The next batter saw all fastballs in the 96 mph range and flew out to center.  A couple of these fastballs also had cutting action.  J.P. Ramirez was up next, and Bundy started him with two 97 mph fastballs before going to the changeup.  The change came in at 88, but Ramirez was either ready for it or his bat speed was perfect for a 88 mph change instead of a 97 mph fastball (that's what the scout said anyway.)  Ramirez timed it up perfectly and hit a deep fly to right field.  Shorebirds right fielder Brenden Webb had to make a jumping catch at the top of the wall in right to prevent extra bases or possibly a home run.  Sadly, this was the last offspeed pitch Bundy would throw all afternoon.  2 innings completed, no base runners.

In the third inning, Bundy faced the bottom third of the Suns lineup and overpowered them solely with his fastball.  He threw an inside fastball to the first hitter, who broke his bat and hit a soft one hopper to shortstop for the out.  He struck out the second batter, Cole Leonida swinging on all fastballs.  The 9th batter in the order, Billy Burns, was completely overmatched in his at bat.  He swung through the first two fastballs before hitting a high chopper over the mound.  Bundy made a nice athletic play going behind the mound on the one hopper for the out.  Third inning completed, still no base runners.

The top of the lineup was due up in the fourth as Bundy had still faced the minimum number of batters.  I'm not sure why but Bundy must have decided that he only needed his fastball at this point, as that's all he threw.  The leadoff batter Brian Goodwin hit a long fly ball to the warning track in left center that left fielder Kyle Hoppy tracked down.  Dykstra was up next and he grounded the first pitch he saw to second base for the out.  The inning ended when Martinson hit a soft liner that right fielder Brenden Webb fielded easily.  All fastballs this inning, still no base runners.

Everyone knew going into the game that Bundy was only going to throw 5 innings, so this was his last inning no matter what happened.  The best looking hitter in the game to me was the Suns cleanup man Matthew Skole, who happened to be up to lead off the 5th.  Skole was the Nationals 5th round pick in the 2011 draft out of Georgia Tech.  He took a 95 mph fastball from Bundy and lined it over the right fielder's head for a double.  This would be the only hit that Bundy would give up on the afternoon, and was the first base runner he allowed.  Even though the Suns were down 3-0 at this point, they decided to have their number 5 hitter bunt Skole over to third.  Again, Bundy looked very athletic coming over toward the third base line to field the bunt and throwing the batter out at first.  I guess we shouldn't be surprised but Bundy looks like a very good fielder.  Since J.P. Ramirez had taken Bundy to the wall in right his last at bat, Bundy wanted to back him off the plate in this at bat.  Unfortunately, he missed off the plate inside and hit him.  First and third, one out. 

This was the first time all day that Bundy was in trouble, so maybe he'd use his devastating curveball and still work in progress changeup to get out of it, right?  Bundy must not think that he needs those pitches to get out of trouble because he threw all fastballs to the next hitter.  I guess if I had a fastball as great as Bundy's, I would too.  He threw 96 and 97 mph fastballs to the next hitter.  A couple showed some nice arm side run, and all of of them had late life.  Brett Newsome couldn't catch up to them and struck out swinging on a high fastball.  The catcher Leonida was up next with two down and runners still on first and third.  Bundy knew this was the end of his outing, and reached back for a little more on the 0-2 count firing his fastest pitch of the day to get the hitter to ground weakly to short.  His last pitch of the day registered 99 mph on the gun, and is reminiscent of what Justin Verlander does often towards the end of his outings.  It was pretty impressive to see that Bundy had even more in the tank to turn to when he was in trouble and wanted to get out of the inning.  The soft groundball ended the inning and also Bundy's day on the mound.

On the day, Bundy threw 5 innings with 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 HBP, 4 strikeouts, and 0 walks.  He didn't allow a base runner until the 5th inning when he allowed a double and hit a batter.  His fastball command was very good, and he could clearly dominate the Low A Hagerstown hitters solely with the fastball mostly 95-98 mph.  The disappointing part of his outing from a development standpoint was the fact that he only threw 1 curveball and 2 changeups.  The one curveball that he threw was an absolutely devastating wipeout pitch that he threw for a strike.  I would have loved to see him bury a few in the dirt to see if the Suns hitters would swing over the top of it.  Rick Peterson, the Orioles director of pitching development has been encouraging Bundy to use more of his secondary pitches so it's hard to say why he didn't use them.  Peterson seems to think that he doesn't use them because he doesn't need them to get hitters out.  That may be the case, but he needs to work on his secondary pitches in order to pitch in the majors.  If he doesn't feel the need to use them in Low A ball, move him to Frederick where he may need them more.

Even though Bundy has only thrown his fastball, curveball, and changeup this year, he apparently also has a slider.  He certainly hasn't needed it thus far, but it's exciting that he was even more weapons at his disposal when he does need them.  He only threw two changeups, one of which was foul tipped while the other was taken to the wall in right.  The pitch definitely has the potential to be a plus pitch for him with similar arm action to his fastball and late downward life.  In order to refine it, he just needs to throw it more often.

There is some talk of Bundy being moved up to Frederick to continue his season either now or after one more start.  I certainly feel that he's ready to be moved up after he's dominated Low A ball with a 0.00 ERA and 40 strikeouts to 2 walks in 30 innings.  He's only let up 5 hits in those 30 innings.  Just to further illuminate his dominance, he's struck out 40% of the hitters to face him this season.  That's 2 out of every 5 batters!  He'd have even more strikeouts this season if he didn't get everyone out.  If he actually let up a few hits, he'd have a chance to get more k's. 

More than his success though, I think it's the fact that he needs to be forced to use his secondary pitches that necessitates the promotion.  He knows that he has an electric fastball that would be effective against major league hitters right now.  However, a starting pitcher can't succeed in the majors with one pitch.  He needs to work on his changeup, curveball, and even his slider.  The development of his secondary offerings is really all that's standing in the way of him being a phenomenal pitcher.

All in all, Bundy definitely lived up to the hype.  His fastball is absolutely electric and he's almost certainly ready for the next challenge in his career.  If you have the chance to go see him pitch, it's definitely worth the price of admission.  I certainly will go see him again if I have the chance.  Maybe I'll see you there.

Do the O's Have the Best Bullpen in Baseball?

Going into Monday night's game against the Rangers, the Orioles surprisingly have the best record in baseball at 19-9.  They've gotten a great performance from the starting rotation as well as from many of the position players like Wieters, Davis and Reimold, which has led to the great start.  I'm not going to talk about any of that today though.  What I want to talk about is the great performance the Orioles have received from the bullpen so far this year.  For years, the Orioles bullpen has been terrible causing the team to lose games in the late innings that they should have won.  That hasn't been the case this year.

For starters, the team bullpen ERA is an unbelievable 1.41.  I can't really believe I'm typing this, but the Orioles are first in the league in bullpen ERA by far.  Just for comparison's sake, last year the team had a bullpen ERA of 4.18 which ranked 27th out of 30.  Now, there is no way that the Orioles are going to finish the season with a bullpen ERA under 2; it's just not going to happen.  So while it's great and we should enjoy it for now, the bullpen has gotten its fair share of luck so far.  The bullpen as a whole has a 3.03 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP.  The two ERA estimators scream that the regression is coming.  So while we know that this performance won't last the whole season, lets take a look at how we got here.

Jim Johnson has been the Orioles closer this year except for the few games he missed with food poisoning.  Johnson hasn't given up a run yet this year and is a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities.  It seems that he's adjusted to the closer's role quite nicely, and may add more credence to the sabermetric argument that any good pitcher can close.  With an outstanding 72.7% ground ball rate, Johnson's approach is more groundball centric than most closers.  Closers typically get many of their outs via the strikeout, but Johnson has success getting guys to beat the ball into the ground.  To get these groundballs, he's using his 2 seam fastball 75% of the time.  It seems to be working.  Johnson has a FIP/xFIP/SIERA of 2.64/3.17/2.33.

Pedro Strop has emerged this season and claimed the role of the Orioles set up man.  He even got a couple of saves when Johnson was in the hospital.  The Orioles acquired Strop towards the end of 2011 as the player to be named later in the Mike Gonzalez trade with the Rangers.  He has been coming at hitters primarily with a 2 seam fastball that he throws 55% of the time, with about 20% 4 seamers and 20% sliders mixed in.  The 2 seamer has been an extremely impressive and effective pitch for him.  He averages 96.7 mph with the pitch and has been getting a lot of swinging strikes it.  Overall, his swinging strike rate is an excellent 11%.  The only concern with Strop is keeping his walks under control; he's carrying a 3.71 BB/9.  For his career, he's at 5.08 BB/9.  If he can keep the walks under control with his dynamic stuff, he'll continue to be effective.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 3.19/3.14/3.07.

Matt Lindstrom is one of 3 Orioles relievers yet to give up an earned run this season.  Throwing his 95 mph heat most of the time, he has legitimately been excellent.  Following the Orioles bullpen theme, he's been throwing tons of sinkers, about 50% of the time.  Along with Darren O'Day, he's one of the two Oriole relievers to average over a strikeout per inning.  To support his 9.69 K/9 rate, he's also getting 10.9% swinging strikes, which is far above average.  Coming to the Orioles along with Jason Hammel in the offseason trade for Jeremy Guthrie, he has been more effective than even the most loyal O's fans would have believed.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 1.72/2.66/2.26.

Of the 3 Orioles relievers yet to give up an earned run, Luis Ayala has been doing it the most with smoke and mirrors.  Ayala has now pitched 15.2 innings without giving up an earned run.  However, his strike out rate of 5.17 K/9 doesn't support this kind of performance.  His walk rate is solid at 2.30 BB/9, but he hasn't been getting tons of groundballs either with a GB% of 49%.  That's above average but not spectacular.  So how's he been having this kind of success, you ask?  Well, the luck dragons have been awfully kind so far.  Ayala has a tiny .208 BABIP, a 93% LOB%, and a 0.0% HR/FB%.  Those marks just can't last throughout the season.  He also only has a 5.3% swinging strike rate.  Look out for some regression for Ayala in the near future.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 2.76/4.24/3.87.  His FIP looks good because he hasn't given up any homeruns yet.  The other two ERA estimators approximate the number of homeruns he should have given up based on his fly ball percentage, and show the chinks in the armor.

Darren O'Day has been under the radar this year, but he's been excellent.  Coming at hitters with a side-arm release point, he's been striking out 9.64 K/9 this year with a strong walk rate of only 2.57 BB/9.  His walk and strike out rates are almost exactly where they were last year, so there is some precedence for his success.  Like many of the Orioles relievers, he's a fastball, sinker, slider pitcher.  The difference with O'Day is that it's coming side-arm and his fastball is only 84 mph.  Nevertheless, he's had a lot of success so far.  He's getting 10.8% swinging strikes, and batters are swinging at 37.4% of his pitches out of the strike zone.  Look for his ERA to come up a little bit but he's been very good so far.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 2.81/3.05/2.59.

The lone lefty in the pen so far has been Troy Patton.  Even though he's been the only lefty in the pen, he hasn't been used to face only lefties.  He's faced 25 left handed hitters and 27 right handed hitters, so Buck is certainly not saving him for the difficult lefties late in the game.  Patton has only struck out 4 of the 52 hitters he's faced for a dismal 2.84 K/9.  He's only walked 2 batters so he's not giving up the free pass either.  Currently, he's only getting 7.5% swinging strikes so he's got some work to do on missing bats.  Troy hasn't distinguished himself yet and has some work to do if he wants to be a long term option in the pen.  He's got some leash because he's the only lefty but if he doesn't miss more bats he's going to be in trouble.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 3.82/4.19/4.25.

The last member of the pen is every Oriole fans favorite pitcher, Kevin Gregg.  Though he had a good series against the Red Sox, he has been dismal for the rest of the season.  Buck has pretty clearly decided that Gregg was the last man on the totem pole in the bullpen giving him only 8.2 innings while everyone else in the bullpen has pitched over 12.  The problem with Gregg's way of pitching is that he doesn't have faith in his stuff and he nibbles around the strike zone instead of attacking hitters in the strike zone.  That is still the case this year, and he's amassed an ugly 5.19 BB/9.  He does have 8 strike outs in his 8.2 innings so he is missing bats.  It's hard to believe that a year ago, Gregg was the Orioles closer.  There is no way he should ever get close to the role again.  Gregg has clearly defined himself as a below average reliever.  If he's making a small salary as the last man in the pen, that's fine.  When he's making $5.8 million to provide below average work, he's hurting the team.  We'll save the debate over what the Orioles should do with him for a different day.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 5.03/5.41/4.16. 

As you can see, the Orioles have received some legitimately great performances out of their bullpen so far allowing them lead the league in bullpen ERA.  A large part of taking 5 out of 6 from the Yankees and Red Sox was due to the stellar work of the bullpen.  However, while the Orioles have gotten great performances from Strop, Lindstrom, O'Day, and Johnson, there is regression coming from guys like Ayala and Patton.  The Orioles enter play Monday night at 19-9 and with the best record in baseball, thanks to a great bullpen so far.  However, don't be shocked if the bullpen starts to give up some runs in the next few series.  They have 3 really tough opponents coming up in the Rangers, Rays, and Yankees.  As a whole, they're just not ready to be the best in baseball yet.  But enjoy it while you can O's fans.

MUST READ: Orioles Interview with ZiPS Creator Dan Szymborski

I don't normally post links to other people's work, but I really enjoyed Chris Stoner from Baltimore Sports and Life's interview with ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski.  They touch on many of the topics all Orioles fans are thinking about, including whether the team should re-sign or trade Adam Jones and if the Orioles should lock up Matt Wieters, and how much that would cost.

I'd urge you all to check it out.  Dan Szymborski is one of the brighter baseball minds out there, and Baltimore Sports and Life is a great place to talk about Maryland Sports and the Orioles.  You can read the interview here.

The Orioles Traded Josh Bell...For Bill Hall?

Well, not really.  Over the weekend, the Orioles traded Josh Bell to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a player to be named later or cash considerations.  After the trade, AAA Norfolk needed a third baseman so Dan Duquette went out and signed Bill Hall.  The same Bill Hall that hasn't had a WAR over 2 since 2006?  Yup, that one.  Why did the Orioles decide that they had no need for the 25 year old Bell, but could use 32 year old Hall on their AAA team?  Let's find out.

Through 9 games with AAA Norfolk, Bell was off to a pretty dismal start hitting just .094/.256/.250.  However, when the Orioles acquired him from the Dodgers in 2009 along with Steve Johnson in exchange for George Sherrill, Bell was highly thought of as a prospect.  In 2009, Bell had a nice season in AA with an OPS of .933.  And in 2010, he was less good in AAA but still had an OPS of .803.  That got him a call up to the majors in July where he would basically be the Orioles starting third baseman for the rest of the season.  He received 161 plate appearances to prove himself that year.  What did he do with this opportunity?  He just slashed .214/.224/.302 with 53 SO and 2 BB.  Yes, 2 BB in 161 PA's.  His 1.2 BB% is the lowest I can remember seeing from a major league player.

This earned him a return engagement at AAA where he had moderate success, remembered how to walk a little bit and had an OPS of .758.  But when he was called up to the Orioles in 2011, it was more of the same except his K% actually went up to 38.5%.  In total, he received 226 major league plate appearances and had a 2.7 BB% and a 34.5 K%.  It's next to impossible to succeed in the majors with rates like that.  So, the Orioles designated him for assignment to make room on the 40 man roster for Luis Exposito, who was waived himself by the Boston Red Sox.  I suppose the Orioles thought they needed more minor league catching depth.  In a few days, they worked out the deal with the Diamondbacks where they're not guaranteed to get a player back.  They may just get cash.

The interesting part of this is that once Josh Bell was traded to the Diamondbacks, the AAA Norfolk team needed a third baseman.  So what did they do?  The team went out and signed 32 year old utility man Bill Hall.  Hall signed with the Yankees prior to spring training this year and was pretty excited about it; after he signed with the Yankees, he tweeted:

IT’S OFFICIAL IM A YANKEE!!!!!!!!#IwannaRing!!!!

— Bill Hall (@BillHall_III) February 7, 2012

But he didn't make the Yankees major league roster out of spring training so he opted out of his contract and has been a free agent since.  Hall has had some previous success in the major leagues, but he hasn't been an above average major league player since he hit 35 home runs in 2006 with the Brewers.  At this point, it's pretty clear that was a fluke.  Right now, he may be a decent utility player because he can play a few different positions around the infield and maybe even a little outfield.  For the Red Sox in 2010, he played every position on the diamond except for catcher and first base.  So he's got that going for him.

To me, this move signals that the team had given up hope that Josh Bell would be a productive major leaguer and also means that the team is unhappy with the defense they've been getting from the third base position.  They're willing to look under any and all rocks to try to find someone that's capable of playing third base and not be terrible at it.  Betemit and Reynolds have each taken turns looking horrendous at third so far.  There are even rumors that the Orioles are considering Brandon Inge.  I sincerely hope that doesn't come to fruition as Inge hasn't hit major league pitching in years. 

Hall is off to a nice start with Norfolk, going 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts in his first game. At the end of the day, the team probably won't call up Hall unless they suffer a rash of injuries.  So he's really just roster depth for the infield, primarily at third base.   These days, that seems to be the primary focus of the Orioles front office.

What's Behind Jake Arrieta's Fast Start?

Third year Orioles starting pitcher Jake Arrieta is off to a very nice start to the season through three starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  Buck gave him the nod on opening day and so far has been rewarded for showing faith in the young right hander.  The ERA estimators agree that his good start is legitimate rather than just a result of good luck.  Currently, Arrieta has a 3.33 FIP, a 3.55 xFIP, and a 3.55 SIERA.  All of these are much improved marks from anything that he's put up in his previous two seasons.  Has Arrieta changed at all as a pitcher?  What's behind this good start?

Since three starts is still only about 10% of his work for the season, we have to be careful to not read too much into certain numbers.  Most of his statistics are not reliable at this point.  I'll just get it out of the way now...small sample size.  I know, I know.  But if we didn't analyze baseball in small sample sizes at this point in the season, what would we talk about?  With that out of the way, I'll do my best to only look at the stats that become at least semi-reliable in the small sample sizes.

The first stat that becomes reliable at this point in the year is velocity.  And that just so happens to be much improved for Jake so far this year.  Check out this velocity graph from fangraphs.  Click on it to embiggen.

His average fastball velocity so far this season has been 93.8 mph.  In 2010 and 2011, it was around 92.5 mph.  So through his first three starts, he's gained about 1.5 mph on his fastball.  There is no question that is a positive development.  I don't recall the exact number, but someone did a study on the effect of an increase in velocity for a starting pitcher.  There was something like a .50 ERA improvement for every mph increase.

It's more informative to look at his K% and BB% rather than K/9 and BB/9 at this point in the season, since it makes the sample size bigger.  Usually, I don't mind using K/9 and BB/9 but this early in the season, the percentages are better.  Through 79 batters faced, Arrieta has a 20.3 K% which is up from 17.8% last year.  So he's made a small improvement in his K%. 

Drilling down even farther, Jake has a swinging strike % of 7.5% so far in 2012.  In 2011, it was just about the same at 7.4%.  It's been shown that swinging strike % has a high correlation with K%.  League average has been about 8.5% for the last few years, so he's actually below average there.  He's accumulated 16 strikeouts in his 79 batters faced and 20.1 innings thrown.

It's in his walk rate where he's made a big improvement.  He's only walked 4 of the 79 batters he's faced this year, which is a rate of only 5.1%.  If he could somehow keep this BB%, we will see a big step forward out of Arrieta this year.  There's no way to really know if he can keep this up.  Throughout his minor league and major league career so far, his walk rate has been around 11%.  Hopefully, this is real improvement but his BB% just hasn't stabilized yet so it's hard to say.

The last thing I'll look at are his luck stats.  His BABIP is an extremely low .214.  Obviously, this won't last and some of those line drives he's been giving up will start falling for hits.  Jake is stranding 67.9% of runners that reach base, which is slightly below the league average of 72.5%.  We can expect this number to improve slightly.  Lastly, his HR/FB rate is fairly normal at 9.1%.

What I'd take away from Arrieta's performance so far is the fact that his velocity is up 1.5 mph, he's getting a little lucky on his balls in play, and he has greatly improved his walk rate.  If he can maintain the velocity and keep some or most of the gain to his walk rate, I think we're going to see the best year of Jake Arrieta's career this season.  Maybe the Orioles did have a real opening day starter after all.

I'll leave you with this look at the pitch f/x graph of his pitches so far in 2012. Enjoy.

When Will Dylan Bundy Arrive?

Baltimore Sun photo by Kenneth K. Lam

Now that we know Orioles 2011 1st round draft pick Dylan Bundy will start the year with the Low A Delmarva Shorebirds, I started to wonder when we'll see Bundy in the major leagues.  There is talk about him being the most polished high school pitcher to be drafted in years so maybe he'll move faster than most.  I've also heard a lot of fans that want him to be up next year in 2013.  For a 19 year old kid that hasn't yet thrown a pitch in minor league ball, that seems awfully fast.  One of the best ways to gauge his development is to looks at other similarly talented high 1st round draft picks to come out of high school and see how they progressed through the minor leagues.

We can't compare Bundy to the last Orioles high first round pitcher out of high school, Matt Hobgood.  He was overdrafted in the first place to save bonus money.  Hobgood never should have been drafted 5th overall in 2009.  Having struggled since he was drafted, now he's out for the 2012 season because of surgery to his rotator cuff.  He's supposed to be out 12-18 months.

Homer Bailey was drafted 7th overall in the 2004 draft out a Texas High School.  Signed quickly, he was able to pitch in 6 games for the Gulf Coast League Reds that summer.  In 2005, Bailey was sent to Dayton in the Low A Midwest League where he spent the whole season.  The following year, Bailey was moved up to High A Sarasota where he started 13 games.  Midway through the 2006 season, he was promoted to AA Chattanooga in the Southern League.  In Chattanooga, Bailey really excelled posting a 1.59 ERA and a 2.45 FIP.  In 2007, the Reds deemed Bailey ready for AAA Louisville after failing to make the major league team out of spring training.  He was called up to the Reds on June 8, 2007 for a month before he was sent down to AAA again.  This would become a theme for Bailey as he has been sent back and forth between the major and minor leagues every year of his career.  Last year, in 2011 Bailey had his best season so far throwing 132 major league innings with a 4.06 FIP.  He is supposed to remain in the Reds rotation in 2012.

Clayton Kershaw was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers 7th overall in the 2006 MLB draft out of Highland Park High School in Dallas, Texas.  Drafted on June 6th, Kershaw signed with the Dodgers quickly on June 20th.  Because he signed so soon, he was able to get in 37 innings with the Gulf Coast League Dodgers at the end of 2006.  For his second year in pro ball in 2007, he was moved to Low A Great Lakes and started 20 games.  He did so well there, including 12.4 SO/9 that he was bumped up to AA Jacksonville on August 6 for 5 starts at the end of the year.  At this point, he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.  The Dodgers sent him back to AA Jacksonville to begin 2008, but recalled him to the major league squad on July 22, 2008 just over 2 years after he was drafted.  Kershaw has turned into one of the best pitchers in the league and made it to the majors at 20 years old in 2008.

Jarrod Parker was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks 9th overall in the 2007 draft out of Norwell High School in Indiana.  Parker held out to the deadline and didn't sign in time to pitch in 2007.  In 2008, he was assigned to Class A to pitch for South Bend.  He spent the entire season there and had a 3.44 ERA with a 3.12 FIP.  To begin 2009, he was bumped up to High A Visalia.  He dominated in 19  innings there and was quickly moved to AA Mobile.  On July 30 in a start for Mobile, Parker injured his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery.  The surgery severely delayed his arrival in the majors.  He would go on to miss the rest of 2009 and all of 2010.  Parker was sent back to Mobile when he returned in 2011 and spent almost the entire season there.  He was recalled to the Diamondbacks for one start at the end of the season.  This offseason, he was traded to the Oakland A's in a package of prospects for Trevor Cahill.  In the running for the 5th starter role with Oakland, he was recently sent to AAA but still may be up shortly with the A's.  Parker is now 23 and in his 5th pro season.

Madison Bumgarner was drafted 10th overall in 2007 out of South Caldwell High School in North Carolina.  Bumgarner didn't pitch in pro ball in 2007.  In 2008, the Giants sent him to Low A Augusta in the South Atlantic League where he dominated to the tune of a 1.46 ERA backed up by a 1.71 FIP.  It was more of the same dominance in High A ball to begin 2009 so after 5 starts there, he was sent to AA Connecticut in the Eastern League.  He spent the majority of 2009 in AA, and got called up to the Giants for 10 innings in September.  Deemed by the Giants to still not be ready for pro ball to begin 2010 (most likely because of his velocity dip in 2009) he was sent to AAA Fresno for 14 starts.  June 26, 2010 was the day that he was called up to the Giants for good.  He has been excellent since he's been in the big leagues while making it to the majors almost exactly 3 years after he was drafted.

Rick Porcello was drafted 27th overall out of a New Jersey High School in 2007.  He was supposed to be drafted higher but his bonus demands and notoriously demanding agent Scott Boras led to him falling to the Tigers.  The Tigers have traditionally rushed their prospects through the minor leagues, like they're currently doing with Jacob Turner.  Porcello had a reputation for being a strikeout pitcher in high school with a devastating curve ball.  Upon arriving to the minors, he began relying on a sinker and pitching to contact.  Porcello didn't pitch in the minors in 2007 after he was drafted, and in 2008 he was sent to High A Lakeland where he spent the whole season and threw 125 innings.  The next year the Tigers invited him to spring training and surprisingly he made the team's rotation out of spring training.  He made his debut on April 9, 2009.  Having spent only one season in the minors, Porcello currently has a career 4.38 FIP.

So what can we tell about Bundy from all this?  2 of the 5 high school pitchers started their careers in Rookie Ball the season they were drafted.  This didn't seem to speed up their paths to the big leagues as they still took the same general amount of time to pass through the minors.  Bundy didn't sign until the August 15 deadline, so he didn't pitch in rookie ball either.  The fastest to get to the majors of the 5 was Porcello, but that had more to do with the Tigers rushing him than anything he did.  Next was Kershaw; he took right about 2 years to get to the bigs because of his sheer dominance of the minor leagues.  Homer Bailey and Madison Bumgarner both took 3 years to get to their respective big league clubs.  Slowed down by a lost year due to Tommy John surgery, Jarrod Parker didn't get to the majors until 4 1/2 years after he was drafted.  That's assuming that he's called up to the A's soon to continue his big league career.

The average time for these types of high 1st round high school draft picks to make it to the majors is two to three years.  Porcello and Parker look like the exceptions.  If Bundy is dominant in the minors, he'll spend closer to 2 years in the minors.  If he's just decent, he'll probably spend closer to 3 years on the farm.

The other thing to consider when thinking about when he'll come up is service time.  Say Bundy dominates the minor leagues and is called up to the Orioles to start 2014.  The Orioles can delay his service clock starting by holding him in the minors for a few weeks until mid April.  Players need 6 years of service time to become a free agent, with 172 days constituting a full year.  If they hold him down for a few weeks, they can get another year of service from him in his age 27 season.  There is also the super-two arbitration element to consider.  If they hold him down until around June to avoid super-two status, the Orioles can potentially save a considerable amount of money in arbitration by only having him eligible for arbitration 3 times instead of 4.

Considering all of these elements, I think the earliest we see Bundy in an O's uniform is June, 2013 with a more likely call-up date of June, 2014.  I'm certainly looking forward to seeing him in an O's uniform.

Orioles Scouts Banned in Korea

This is not a new story, but I wanted to update it with the fact that Orioles Scouts were in fact banned from all Korean Baseball Association (KBA) sanctioned games, which include the national high school and college tournaments as well as pro games.  The picture above is actually hanging outside stadiums in Korea right now.  I don't know why they needed an exclamation point for the Korean version of the message, but not the English version.  From the version that I can understand, it's certainly clear enough without it.  I guess they really wanted to make their point to any Orioles scouts that could maybe speak some Korean.

Let's take a step back here and talk about what actually happened to lead to the scouts being banned.  On January 17th, the Orioles reached an agreement with 17 year old Seong-Min Kim to sign with the team for $550,000.  Almost immediately, the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) protested the signing.  The KBO filed an official protest to Major League Baseball saying that the Orioles didn't follow the proper protocol in signing the player.  Their protest was successful, and MLB ended up not approving the contract.  The KBA also suspended Kim from playing and coaching in Korea indefinitely for making contact with a pro team before his final year of high school.

Apparently, if a major league team wants to sign a Korean player, the team has to submit a status check on the player to MLB, which would then forward the request to the KBO.  The KBO would determine whether the team can contact the player, and tell MLB whether the team has it's permission.  Then, MLB would tell the team whether they could in fact get in contact with the player and sign him.

The Orioles did not follow this protocol.  They signed Kim with out going through the proper channels.  Reportedly, Kim didn't even have an agent and the team worked out a contract directly with Kim's parents.  Dan Duquette was known for signing many Asian players during his tenure with the Red Sox.  The fact that he didn't know and/or didn't follow the proper protocol in this case is troubling.  The international market was supposed to be one of Duquette's strengths. 

Duquette issued an official apology during February.  From Roch Kubatko of MASN: 

"On behalf of the Orioles organization, I offer a sincere apology to the Korea Baseball Organization and the Korea Baseball Association for the club's unintentional breach of protocol in failing to tender a status check in the process of signing Seong-Min Kim. The Orioles respect Major League Baseball's recruiting policies and the governing bodies and people that contribute to the growth of baseball around the world."

I am troubled by the Orioles front office's lack of knowledge in the way the international signing game is played. However, there's another aspect to this story that's just as troubling. Baseball America reported that the player the Orioles tried to sign, Seong-Min Kim was considered a non-prospect by the other organizations they spoke with. From Baseball America: 

Baseball America surveyed 11 other teams that scout Asia (two of which did not have a report on him on file) and could not find any organization that had interest in signing Kim or had a similarly glowing scouting report. While scouts often disagree about the futures of international teenage prospects, most of the other teams' reports on Kim's present ability and future potential were consistent with each other.

According to the other teams, Kim's fastball ranged from 78-85 mph. The maximum velocity another team had on Kim was 87 mph. Other scouts called his breaking ball a slurvy curveball in the mid- to high 60s and graded it from 20-30 on the 20-80 scouting scale, which rates as well below average. Scouts say he's likely an inch or two shorter than his listed height of 5-feet-11, has little projection and some funkiness in his arm action.

Many believed the Orioles were the only team interested in Kim. Several teams turned him in as a non-prospect.

This is the part of the story where I become really concerned. Are we supposed to believe that the Orioles scouts saw a different player than the scouts from other organizations that Baseball America talked to? According to reports, Orioles scouts recorded Kim throwing 88-90 mph with a plus curveball. Obviously, there's a big difference between a kid throwing 78-85 mph and 88-90 mph. The Orioles did a lot of shuffling around in their front office this winter. This makes you question how successful they were in getting the right people in the right spots.

Reportedly, the Orioles will again attempt to sign Kim once they are allowed to. It isn't clear when that is going to be. In the meantime, Kim is going back to high school in South Korea and is banned indefinitely from the Korean Baseball Organization so he can't play professional baseball in Korea. That severely limits his options as a 17 year old. I'm not familiar with how often Korean players go play in Japanese or Taiwanese leagues, but I doubt it would be his first choice.

The Orioles are left with a lot of egg on their face in this debacle. The sign outside Korean baseball stadiums is just an ugly reminder of this episode. The KBO doesn't strike me as an organization that forgives and forgets easily so this ban could last for quite some time. This wasn't the start to his Orioles tenure that Dan Duquette was hoping for. Let's hope it gets better from here.