When Will Dylan Bundy Arrive?

Baltimore Sun photo by Kenneth K. Lam

Now that we know Orioles 2011 1st round draft pick Dylan Bundy will start the year with the Low A Delmarva Shorebirds, I started to wonder when we'll see Bundy in the major leagues.  There is talk about him being the most polished high school pitcher to be drafted in years so maybe he'll move faster than most.  I've also heard a lot of fans that want him to be up next year in 2013.  For a 19 year old kid that hasn't yet thrown a pitch in minor league ball, that seems awfully fast.  One of the best ways to gauge his development is to looks at other similarly talented high 1st round draft picks to come out of high school and see how they progressed through the minor leagues.

We can't compare Bundy to the last Orioles high first round pitcher out of high school, Matt Hobgood.  He was overdrafted in the first place to save bonus money.  Hobgood never should have been drafted 5th overall in 2009.  Having struggled since he was drafted, now he's out for the 2012 season because of surgery to his rotator cuff.  He's supposed to be out 12-18 months.

Homer Bailey was drafted 7th overall in the 2004 draft out a Texas High School.  Signed quickly, he was able to pitch in 6 games for the Gulf Coast League Reds that summer.  In 2005, Bailey was sent to Dayton in the Low A Midwest League where he spent the whole season.  The following year, Bailey was moved up to High A Sarasota where he started 13 games.  Midway through the 2006 season, he was promoted to AA Chattanooga in the Southern League.  In Chattanooga, Bailey really excelled posting a 1.59 ERA and a 2.45 FIP.  In 2007, the Reds deemed Bailey ready for AAA Louisville after failing to make the major league team out of spring training.  He was called up to the Reds on June 8, 2007 for a month before he was sent down to AAA again.  This would become a theme for Bailey as he has been sent back and forth between the major and minor leagues every year of his career.  Last year, in 2011 Bailey had his best season so far throwing 132 major league innings with a 4.06 FIP.  He is supposed to remain in the Reds rotation in 2012.

Clayton Kershaw was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers 7th overall in the 2006 MLB draft out of Highland Park High School in Dallas, Texas.  Drafted on June 6th, Kershaw signed with the Dodgers quickly on June 20th.  Because he signed so soon, he was able to get in 37 innings with the Gulf Coast League Dodgers at the end of 2006.  For his second year in pro ball in 2007, he was moved to Low A Great Lakes and started 20 games.  He did so well there, including 12.4 SO/9 that he was bumped up to AA Jacksonville on August 6 for 5 starts at the end of the year.  At this point, he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.  The Dodgers sent him back to AA Jacksonville to begin 2008, but recalled him to the major league squad on July 22, 2008 just over 2 years after he was drafted.  Kershaw has turned into one of the best pitchers in the league and made it to the majors at 20 years old in 2008.

Jarrod Parker was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks 9th overall in the 2007 draft out of Norwell High School in Indiana.  Parker held out to the deadline and didn't sign in time to pitch in 2007.  In 2008, he was assigned to Class A to pitch for South Bend.  He spent the entire season there and had a 3.44 ERA with a 3.12 FIP.  To begin 2009, he was bumped up to High A Visalia.  He dominated in 19  innings there and was quickly moved to AA Mobile.  On July 30 in a start for Mobile, Parker injured his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery.  The surgery severely delayed his arrival in the majors.  He would go on to miss the rest of 2009 and all of 2010.  Parker was sent back to Mobile when he returned in 2011 and spent almost the entire season there.  He was recalled to the Diamondbacks for one start at the end of the season.  This offseason, he was traded to the Oakland A's in a package of prospects for Trevor Cahill.  In the running for the 5th starter role with Oakland, he was recently sent to AAA but still may be up shortly with the A's.  Parker is now 23 and in his 5th pro season.

Madison Bumgarner was drafted 10th overall in 2007 out of South Caldwell High School in North Carolina.  Bumgarner didn't pitch in pro ball in 2007.  In 2008, the Giants sent him to Low A Augusta in the South Atlantic League where he dominated to the tune of a 1.46 ERA backed up by a 1.71 FIP.  It was more of the same dominance in High A ball to begin 2009 so after 5 starts there, he was sent to AA Connecticut in the Eastern League.  He spent the majority of 2009 in AA, and got called up to the Giants for 10 innings in September.  Deemed by the Giants to still not be ready for pro ball to begin 2010 (most likely because of his velocity dip in 2009) he was sent to AAA Fresno for 14 starts.  June 26, 2010 was the day that he was called up to the Giants for good.  He has been excellent since he's been in the big leagues while making it to the majors almost exactly 3 years after he was drafted.

Rick Porcello was drafted 27th overall out of a New Jersey High School in 2007.  He was supposed to be drafted higher but his bonus demands and notoriously demanding agent Scott Boras led to him falling to the Tigers.  The Tigers have traditionally rushed their prospects through the minor leagues, like they're currently doing with Jacob Turner.  Porcello had a reputation for being a strikeout pitcher in high school with a devastating curve ball.  Upon arriving to the minors, he began relying on a sinker and pitching to contact.  Porcello didn't pitch in the minors in 2007 after he was drafted, and in 2008 he was sent to High A Lakeland where he spent the whole season and threw 125 innings.  The next year the Tigers invited him to spring training and surprisingly he made the team's rotation out of spring training.  He made his debut on April 9, 2009.  Having spent only one season in the minors, Porcello currently has a career 4.38 FIP.

So what can we tell about Bundy from all this?  2 of the 5 high school pitchers started their careers in Rookie Ball the season they were drafted.  This didn't seem to speed up their paths to the big leagues as they still took the same general amount of time to pass through the minors.  Bundy didn't sign until the August 15 deadline, so he didn't pitch in rookie ball either.  The fastest to get to the majors of the 5 was Porcello, but that had more to do with the Tigers rushing him than anything he did.  Next was Kershaw; he took right about 2 years to get to the bigs because of his sheer dominance of the minor leagues.  Homer Bailey and Madison Bumgarner both took 3 years to get to their respective big league clubs.  Slowed down by a lost year due to Tommy John surgery, Jarrod Parker didn't get to the majors until 4 1/2 years after he was drafted.  That's assuming that he's called up to the A's soon to continue his big league career.

The average time for these types of high 1st round high school draft picks to make it to the majors is two to three years.  Porcello and Parker look like the exceptions.  If Bundy is dominant in the minors, he'll spend closer to 2 years in the minors.  If he's just decent, he'll probably spend closer to 3 years on the farm.

The other thing to consider when thinking about when he'll come up is service time.  Say Bundy dominates the minor leagues and is called up to the Orioles to start 2014.  The Orioles can delay his service clock starting by holding him in the minors for a few weeks until mid April.  Players need 6 years of service time to become a free agent, with 172 days constituting a full year.  If they hold him down for a few weeks, they can get another year of service from him in his age 27 season.  There is also the super-two arbitration element to consider.  If they hold him down until around June to avoid super-two status, the Orioles can potentially save a considerable amount of money in arbitration by only having him eligible for arbitration 3 times instead of 4.

Considering all of these elements, I think the earliest we see Bundy in an O's uniform is June, 2013 with a more likely call-up date of June, 2014.  I'm certainly looking forward to seeing him in an O's uniform.