The Orioles Should Not Be Buyers

“Our future is now,” Dan Duquette told Fox Sports on Wednesday of last week.  This is one of many articles linking the Orioles to acquiring players at the trade deadline in order to make a run at a playoff spot this year.  On Orioles fan sites, there are running commentaries on who the Orioles should trade for this month.  The Orioles have been mentioned in numerous trade rumors by national news outlets because the fans aren't the only ones who think the Orioles should be buyers at the trade deadline.  The GM does too.

“We’re going to try to do everything we can to get into the playoffs this year,” Duquette said. “I just think it’s important to the fans that they know we’re trying to put a good team on the field and have a good season.”  The Orioles have been linked to Chase Headley, Jason Vargas, and Juan Pierre in this article.  They've been linked to Clayton Richard in this one. 

Is the Orioles trading prospects for veterans to try to win now the right strategy for the organization to take?  I would definitely say no.

The Orioles record at the moment is 52-47.  The team is in second place in the AL East 7.5 games behind the Yankees.  They're also 1.5 games out of the second wild card spot with 3 teams ahead of them in the wild card standings.  There are 4 other teams within 3 games of them in the wild card standings.  At best, the Orioles have a small chance at a wild card spot and would have to fight off 7 other teams in order to win one.  Baseball Prospectus gives the Orioles just a 3.7% chance of making the playoffs.

There are many reasons to believe that the Orioles have gotten lucky in order to achieve their 52-47 record.  One of them is their staggeringly bad run differential.  The Orioles have been outscored by a total of 53 runs this season, which is the 3rd worst run differential in the American League.  While it can't be used as definitive because there are other factors that go into a team's won-loss record, their pythagorean record is just 44-55.  8 games worse than their actual record.  Some have pointed to the Orioles record in 1 run games (19-6) as a measure of the strength of the team's bullpen.  General sabermetric wisdom would say that there was a lot of luck involved in compiling that record, and the team is bound to regress and start losing more of these 1 run games going forward.  Thanks to some great work by Andrew on Camden Chat, we can see that the Orioles bullpen really didn't do anything special in all those 1 run games.  They were good about the same number of total times that they were ok or bad, but the O's won games when the bullpen pitched well and when it didn't.  That could mean that regression in those games is coming.

Jeff Sullivan of SB Nation just wrote a great article, which generally stated that the Orioles aren't that good of a team but they're in a wild card chase so they should make small upgrades to try to win a playoff spot.  In the post, he states:

The Orioles have had the second-worst team offense in the American League, between the A's and the Mariners.

By defense-independent statistics, the Orioles have had the fifth- or sixth-worst starting rotation in the American League. Their 4.41 FIP ranks between the Indians and the Red Sox. They've also had a lower-half bullpen, with a 4.00 FIP that's better than the Angels but worse than the Indians.

The Orioles presently have the American League's worst UZR, which is a measure of team defense. They're also the worst in the American League in Defensive Runs Saved.

That pretty much covers the three phases of the game: hitting, pitching and defense.  The Orioles are close to the bottom of the American League in all three.  Now after going through all that, I'm not sure how he gets to the conclusion that the Orioles should be buyers at the deadline, but he does. 

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement that was put in place during this past off season added a second wild card to the playoffs in each league.  These two wild cards will now meet in a "play-in" game to determine which wild card team gets the right to advance to the division series.  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently examined how the new wild card format should affect team's trading deadline decisions.  It's definitely worth a read.  If the Orioles do somehow manage to win one of the two wild card spots, in all likelihood, they will face a much more talented Angels ball club that will probably have the chance to line up Jered Weaver to start the game.  It's doubtful that the Orioles would have the opportunity to line up their rotation as they will be in a dog fight just to win the wild card, so the Orioles would have to pitch whoever's turn is up in the rotation.  The Orioles would be huge underdogs in that one game playoff, which at best would be a 50/50 proposition.  Should the Orioles be trading prospects that have a chance to help the ball club in the future for the chance to play in this game?

It would be extremely misguided for the Orioles front office to even consider trading Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy, so we should all be thankful that neither of them is on the table.  However, I have to believe that guys like Jonathan Schoop, Xavier Avery, Nicky Delmonico and others would be on the table.  The team has also been rumored to be thinking about trading from the group of young pitchers that have struggled on the major league team this season such as Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Tillman.  If they traded one of them at this point, the value they would receive would be much less than the upside each of them possess. 

The Orioles should be focusing on the the next few seasons when they will still have their current core in place, but will also have Bundy, Machado and Schoop on the team to supplement the current talent.  At that point, the team will hopefully be ready to compete for the division title which is much more valuable under the new playoff format.  They shouldn't be trading anyone away that has a chance to help them when they are truly ready to compete.  The team is just not at the point yet where they are a real contender.

The Orioles have been a great story so far and it's exciting for the fans to get to watch the team in a playoff race, but that doesn't mean the Orioles should trade pieces that could help them in the future to try to win this year.  Do they owe it to the fans to try to compete after 14 straight losing seasons?  I'd say they owe it to the fans to try to be competitive over the long term, not just this season.  Their best pitcher so far this season, Jason Hammel is out until at least mid-August and we don't know how he's going to pitch when he comes back.  That's not going to make winning down the stretch any easier.  While this season has been fun to watch and I'd love to see them fighting for a wild card spot in September, the team shouldn't mortgage the future in order to do it.  If I was running the team, I'd actually be in favor of trying to sell a few pieces in order to load up for the next few seasons.  I'll be fine if the Orioles stand pat at the deadline to take a shot at the 50/50 wild card spot.  Just don't sell the farm, please.

Dylan Bundy: A Sunday in Hagerstown

On Sunday I had the opportunity to witness Dylan Bundy's latest start for the Delmarva Shorebirds in Hagerstown against the Suns.  I sat in the third row right behind the plate so I had a really good view of the action.  Directly behind me were an Orioles scout (I didn't get his name), Parker Bridwell and Tim Berry who were charting the Shorebirds pitchers.  Bridwell and Berry are also starting pitchers for the Shorebirds, Bridwell even made some Orioles top prospect lists.  Since I'm not anything close to a scout and don't own a radar gun, all of my velocity readings came from the gun that Parker was holding.  It was certainly an interesting perspective to watch a game.  There was also a gaggle of scouts standing behind our section who I'm sure were all there to see Bundy.  Here's Bundy from my viewpoint.

From the opening pitch, Bundy didn't disappoint.  He started the game throwing only his fastball, which ranged from 95-98 mph.  The first batter flew out softly to center, so he started the 2nd batter Cutter Dykstra (yes, he's Lenny Dykstra's son) with a steady stream of fastballs as well.  Cutter fouled a couple off and worked a full count.  After throwing only fastballs to this point, he dropped a 75 mph curveball over the inner half that completely fooled the right handed Dykstra who couldn't take the bat off of his shoulder.  Strikeout looking on a very impressive front door curveball that looked like it broke over a foot down and away from him.  He threw a couple more fastballs to the next hitter, who lined out to center.  First inning completed, and the only curveball of the day.

The first hitter of the 2nd inning was the Suns most dangerous hitter, Matthew Skole.  Again, Bundy threw mostly fastballs but he mixed in a 87 mph changeup which had late downward movement.  Bundy struck him out swinging on a 97 mph fastball with a little cut action.  2 strikeouts through 4 batters.  The next batter saw all fastballs in the 96 mph range and flew out to center.  A couple of these fastballs also had cutting action.  J.P. Ramirez was up next, and Bundy started him with two 97 mph fastballs before going to the changeup.  The change came in at 88, but Ramirez was either ready for it or his bat speed was perfect for a 88 mph change instead of a 97 mph fastball (that's what the scout said anyway.)  Ramirez timed it up perfectly and hit a deep fly to right field.  Shorebirds right fielder Brenden Webb had to make a jumping catch at the top of the wall in right to prevent extra bases or possibly a home run.  Sadly, this was the last offspeed pitch Bundy would throw all afternoon.  2 innings completed, no base runners.

In the third inning, Bundy faced the bottom third of the Suns lineup and overpowered them solely with his fastball.  He threw an inside fastball to the first hitter, who broke his bat and hit a soft one hopper to shortstop for the out.  He struck out the second batter, Cole Leonida swinging on all fastballs.  The 9th batter in the order, Billy Burns, was completely overmatched in his at bat.  He swung through the first two fastballs before hitting a high chopper over the mound.  Bundy made a nice athletic play going behind the mound on the one hopper for the out.  Third inning completed, still no base runners.

The top of the lineup was due up in the fourth as Bundy had still faced the minimum number of batters.  I'm not sure why but Bundy must have decided that he only needed his fastball at this point, as that's all he threw.  The leadoff batter Brian Goodwin hit a long fly ball to the warning track in left center that left fielder Kyle Hoppy tracked down.  Dykstra was up next and he grounded the first pitch he saw to second base for the out.  The inning ended when Martinson hit a soft liner that right fielder Brenden Webb fielded easily.  All fastballs this inning, still no base runners.

Everyone knew going into the game that Bundy was only going to throw 5 innings, so this was his last inning no matter what happened.  The best looking hitter in the game to me was the Suns cleanup man Matthew Skole, who happened to be up to lead off the 5th.  Skole was the Nationals 5th round pick in the 2011 draft out of Georgia Tech.  He took a 95 mph fastball from Bundy and lined it over the right fielder's head for a double.  This would be the only hit that Bundy would give up on the afternoon, and was the first base runner he allowed.  Even though the Suns were down 3-0 at this point, they decided to have their number 5 hitter bunt Skole over to third.  Again, Bundy looked very athletic coming over toward the third base line to field the bunt and throwing the batter out at first.  I guess we shouldn't be surprised but Bundy looks like a very good fielder.  Since J.P. Ramirez had taken Bundy to the wall in right his last at bat, Bundy wanted to back him off the plate in this at bat.  Unfortunately, he missed off the plate inside and hit him.  First and third, one out. 

This was the first time all day that Bundy was in trouble, so maybe he'd use his devastating curveball and still work in progress changeup to get out of it, right?  Bundy must not think that he needs those pitches to get out of trouble because he threw all fastballs to the next hitter.  I guess if I had a fastball as great as Bundy's, I would too.  He threw 96 and 97 mph fastballs to the next hitter.  A couple showed some nice arm side run, and all of of them had late life.  Brett Newsome couldn't catch up to them and struck out swinging on a high fastball.  The catcher Leonida was up next with two down and runners still on first and third.  Bundy knew this was the end of his outing, and reached back for a little more on the 0-2 count firing his fastest pitch of the day to get the hitter to ground weakly to short.  His last pitch of the day registered 99 mph on the gun, and is reminiscent of what Justin Verlander does often towards the end of his outings.  It was pretty impressive to see that Bundy had even more in the tank to turn to when he was in trouble and wanted to get out of the inning.  The soft groundball ended the inning and also Bundy's day on the mound.

On the day, Bundy threw 5 innings with 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 HBP, 4 strikeouts, and 0 walks.  He didn't allow a base runner until the 5th inning when he allowed a double and hit a batter.  His fastball command was very good, and he could clearly dominate the Low A Hagerstown hitters solely with the fastball mostly 95-98 mph.  The disappointing part of his outing from a development standpoint was the fact that he only threw 1 curveball and 2 changeups.  The one curveball that he threw was an absolutely devastating wipeout pitch that he threw for a strike.  I would have loved to see him bury a few in the dirt to see if the Suns hitters would swing over the top of it.  Rick Peterson, the Orioles director of pitching development has been encouraging Bundy to use more of his secondary pitches so it's hard to say why he didn't use them.  Peterson seems to think that he doesn't use them because he doesn't need them to get hitters out.  That may be the case, but he needs to work on his secondary pitches in order to pitch in the majors.  If he doesn't feel the need to use them in Low A ball, move him to Frederick where he may need them more.

Even though Bundy has only thrown his fastball, curveball, and changeup this year, he apparently also has a slider.  He certainly hasn't needed it thus far, but it's exciting that he was even more weapons at his disposal when he does need them.  He only threw two changeups, one of which was foul tipped while the other was taken to the wall in right.  The pitch definitely has the potential to be a plus pitch for him with similar arm action to his fastball and late downward life.  In order to refine it, he just needs to throw it more often.

There is some talk of Bundy being moved up to Frederick to continue his season either now or after one more start.  I certainly feel that he's ready to be moved up after he's dominated Low A ball with a 0.00 ERA and 40 strikeouts to 2 walks in 30 innings.  He's only let up 5 hits in those 30 innings.  Just to further illuminate his dominance, he's struck out 40% of the hitters to face him this season.  That's 2 out of every 5 batters!  He'd have even more strikeouts this season if he didn't get everyone out.  If he actually let up a few hits, he'd have a chance to get more k's. 

More than his success though, I think it's the fact that he needs to be forced to use his secondary pitches that necessitates the promotion.  He knows that he has an electric fastball that would be effective against major league hitters right now.  However, a starting pitcher can't succeed in the majors with one pitch.  He needs to work on his changeup, curveball, and even his slider.  The development of his secondary offerings is really all that's standing in the way of him being a phenomenal pitcher.

All in all, Bundy definitely lived up to the hype.  His fastball is absolutely electric and he's almost certainly ready for the next challenge in his career.  If you have the chance to go see him pitch, it's definitely worth the price of admission.  I certainly will go see him again if I have the chance.  Maybe I'll see you there.

When Will Dylan Bundy Arrive?

Baltimore Sun photo by Kenneth K. Lam

Now that we know Orioles 2011 1st round draft pick Dylan Bundy will start the year with the Low A Delmarva Shorebirds, I started to wonder when we'll see Bundy in the major leagues.  There is talk about him being the most polished high school pitcher to be drafted in years so maybe he'll move faster than most.  I've also heard a lot of fans that want him to be up next year in 2013.  For a 19 year old kid that hasn't yet thrown a pitch in minor league ball, that seems awfully fast.  One of the best ways to gauge his development is to looks at other similarly talented high 1st round draft picks to come out of high school and see how they progressed through the minor leagues.

We can't compare Bundy to the last Orioles high first round pitcher out of high school, Matt Hobgood.  He was overdrafted in the first place to save bonus money.  Hobgood never should have been drafted 5th overall in 2009.  Having struggled since he was drafted, now he's out for the 2012 season because of surgery to his rotator cuff.  He's supposed to be out 12-18 months.

Homer Bailey was drafted 7th overall in the 2004 draft out a Texas High School.  Signed quickly, he was able to pitch in 6 games for the Gulf Coast League Reds that summer.  In 2005, Bailey was sent to Dayton in the Low A Midwest League where he spent the whole season.  The following year, Bailey was moved up to High A Sarasota where he started 13 games.  Midway through the 2006 season, he was promoted to AA Chattanooga in the Southern League.  In Chattanooga, Bailey really excelled posting a 1.59 ERA and a 2.45 FIP.  In 2007, the Reds deemed Bailey ready for AAA Louisville after failing to make the major league team out of spring training.  He was called up to the Reds on June 8, 2007 for a month before he was sent down to AAA again.  This would become a theme for Bailey as he has been sent back and forth between the major and minor leagues every year of his career.  Last year, in 2011 Bailey had his best season so far throwing 132 major league innings with a 4.06 FIP.  He is supposed to remain in the Reds rotation in 2012.

Clayton Kershaw was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers 7th overall in the 2006 MLB draft out of Highland Park High School in Dallas, Texas.  Drafted on June 6th, Kershaw signed with the Dodgers quickly on June 20th.  Because he signed so soon, he was able to get in 37 innings with the Gulf Coast League Dodgers at the end of 2006.  For his second year in pro ball in 2007, he was moved to Low A Great Lakes and started 20 games.  He did so well there, including 12.4 SO/9 that he was bumped up to AA Jacksonville on August 6 for 5 starts at the end of the year.  At this point, he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.  The Dodgers sent him back to AA Jacksonville to begin 2008, but recalled him to the major league squad on July 22, 2008 just over 2 years after he was drafted.  Kershaw has turned into one of the best pitchers in the league and made it to the majors at 20 years old in 2008.

Jarrod Parker was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks 9th overall in the 2007 draft out of Norwell High School in Indiana.  Parker held out to the deadline and didn't sign in time to pitch in 2007.  In 2008, he was assigned to Class A to pitch for South Bend.  He spent the entire season there and had a 3.44 ERA with a 3.12 FIP.  To begin 2009, he was bumped up to High A Visalia.  He dominated in 19  innings there and was quickly moved to AA Mobile.  On July 30 in a start for Mobile, Parker injured his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery.  The surgery severely delayed his arrival in the majors.  He would go on to miss the rest of 2009 and all of 2010.  Parker was sent back to Mobile when he returned in 2011 and spent almost the entire season there.  He was recalled to the Diamondbacks for one start at the end of the season.  This offseason, he was traded to the Oakland A's in a package of prospects for Trevor Cahill.  In the running for the 5th starter role with Oakland, he was recently sent to AAA but still may be up shortly with the A's.  Parker is now 23 and in his 5th pro season.

Madison Bumgarner was drafted 10th overall in 2007 out of South Caldwell High School in North Carolina.  Bumgarner didn't pitch in pro ball in 2007.  In 2008, the Giants sent him to Low A Augusta in the South Atlantic League where he dominated to the tune of a 1.46 ERA backed up by a 1.71 FIP.  It was more of the same dominance in High A ball to begin 2009 so after 5 starts there, he was sent to AA Connecticut in the Eastern League.  He spent the majority of 2009 in AA, and got called up to the Giants for 10 innings in September.  Deemed by the Giants to still not be ready for pro ball to begin 2010 (most likely because of his velocity dip in 2009) he was sent to AAA Fresno for 14 starts.  June 26, 2010 was the day that he was called up to the Giants for good.  He has been excellent since he's been in the big leagues while making it to the majors almost exactly 3 years after he was drafted.

Rick Porcello was drafted 27th overall out of a New Jersey High School in 2007.  He was supposed to be drafted higher but his bonus demands and notoriously demanding agent Scott Boras led to him falling to the Tigers.  The Tigers have traditionally rushed their prospects through the minor leagues, like they're currently doing with Jacob Turner.  Porcello had a reputation for being a strikeout pitcher in high school with a devastating curve ball.  Upon arriving to the minors, he began relying on a sinker and pitching to contact.  Porcello didn't pitch in the minors in 2007 after he was drafted, and in 2008 he was sent to High A Lakeland where he spent the whole season and threw 125 innings.  The next year the Tigers invited him to spring training and surprisingly he made the team's rotation out of spring training.  He made his debut on April 9, 2009.  Having spent only one season in the minors, Porcello currently has a career 4.38 FIP.

So what can we tell about Bundy from all this?  2 of the 5 high school pitchers started their careers in Rookie Ball the season they were drafted.  This didn't seem to speed up their paths to the big leagues as they still took the same general amount of time to pass through the minors.  Bundy didn't sign until the August 15 deadline, so he didn't pitch in rookie ball either.  The fastest to get to the majors of the 5 was Porcello, but that had more to do with the Tigers rushing him than anything he did.  Next was Kershaw; he took right about 2 years to get to the bigs because of his sheer dominance of the minor leagues.  Homer Bailey and Madison Bumgarner both took 3 years to get to their respective big league clubs.  Slowed down by a lost year due to Tommy John surgery, Jarrod Parker didn't get to the majors until 4 1/2 years after he was drafted.  That's assuming that he's called up to the A's soon to continue his big league career.

The average time for these types of high 1st round high school draft picks to make it to the majors is two to three years.  Porcello and Parker look like the exceptions.  If Bundy is dominant in the minors, he'll spend closer to 2 years in the minors.  If he's just decent, he'll probably spend closer to 3 years on the farm.

The other thing to consider when thinking about when he'll come up is service time.  Say Bundy dominates the minor leagues and is called up to the Orioles to start 2014.  The Orioles can delay his service clock starting by holding him in the minors for a few weeks until mid April.  Players need 6 years of service time to become a free agent, with 172 days constituting a full year.  If they hold him down for a few weeks, they can get another year of service from him in his age 27 season.  There is also the super-two arbitration element to consider.  If they hold him down until around June to avoid super-two status, the Orioles can potentially save a considerable amount of money in arbitration by only having him eligible for arbitration 3 times instead of 4.

Considering all of these elements, I think the earliest we see Bundy in an O's uniform is June, 2013 with a more likely call-up date of June, 2014.  I'm certainly looking forward to seeing him in an O's uniform.