June 12, 2012

Kevin Gausman: Orioles Top Draft Pick


Kevin Gausman (Crystal Logiudice, US PRESSWIRE )
Last Monday, the Orioles took Kevin Gausman with the number four overall pick in the MLB Draft.  A 21 year old RHP out of LSU, he was a draft eligible sophomore after being drafted in the 6th round by the Dodgers in 2010.  He was offered over $1 million out of high school but turned it down in favor of attending college at LSU.  That currently looks like a good decision considering the slot money at the number four overall pick is a cool $4,200,000.  The way the Orioles draft shaped up, it is likely that the team offers an around slot contract to Gausman.  They don't need to free any money up for any compensatory picks like a team like the Astros just did in signing top pick Carlos Correa to an under slot contract.  If you're curious about the Orioles recommended draft slots, here's the link to the Baseball America web page that has them.


The scouting reports on Gausman are glowing with a fastball ranging anywhere from 93-97 mph.  His slender frame still has a lot of projectability and as he fills out, there is the possibility that he adds even more velocity.  Here's Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus:
"Make no mistake, when the Orioles passed on the falling Appel, they did it because Gausman was genuinely ahead of Appel on their board. His fastball and changeup are already plus pitches, but the difference between him ending up good or ending up great will depend on his ability to find a consistent breaking ball."
Gausman is mainly a fastball / changeup pitcher right now.  He also has a slider that he throws from time to time and he started throwing a curveball during his sophomore season with LSU.  However, he is extremely inconsistent with the two breaking balls leading him to either miss with them badly out of the strike zone or hang them in the middle of the plate.  He understands that he needs to work on his third pitch in order to keep hitters off balance.  See this quote from his introductory conference call with Orioles Scouting Director Gary Rajsich:
"I think I definitely have it in there. I really just started throwing a true curveball this season. So, I haven't had much time to develop it," he said. "My slider has been a good pitch for me lately. That is another breaking pitch I have in my arsenal. Some days I really feel comfortable with it and other days I have to work to find it.
"I think my development as a pitcher and going forward is going to kind of depend on that. I'll be a fastball-changeup guy my entire career, but what is going to make the biggest difference is which breaking pitch I will decide to throw and which will be my bread and butter, and which one I may do away with."
The third pitch will be extremely important for his development as a starting pitcher.  If he doesn't develop a third pitch, his future may lie in the bullpen.  That is not the result that anyone attached to the organization wants at this point, so I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis in his instruction once he hits the minor leagues.

The Orioles wanted a college pitcher that will be able to help the team fairly quickly.  Depending on the development track that Rick Peterson sets for him, Gausman should be able to do just that.  Typically, college pitchers start in full season ball and don't need more than a couple of years in the minors.  It appears that Rajsich and Dan Duquette targeted a draft pick that would arrive in the majors at a similar time to Machado and Bundy.  That certainly makes a lot of sense for the team.

Over the weekend, Kevin's college team LSU faced Stony Brook in the Super Regionals for the right to go to the College World Series in Omaha.  The best of three series had games scheduled for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  However, with the first game tied in the 12th inning the skies opened in Baton Rouge and the game had to be postponed until Saturday morning.  Needing a win in the first game of the series, LSU turned to its ace and that day's starter Kevin Gausman to pitch the 12th inning.  Gausman only threw 12 pitches while not allowing a base runner in his inning of work and the LSU Tigers won the game in the bottom of the 12th on a game winning base hit from CF Mason Katz.  And because this is college and not the minor or major leagues where young arms are protected at all costs, LSU ran Gausman back out there after a 45 minute delay between games.


Gausman ended up throwing another 7 innings and 98 pitches in the second game, while giving up 3 runs.  He struck out six, walked one, and gave up 6 hits.  It also rained fairly heavily on and off throughout the game, so it's certainly possible that he wasn't at his best on this day.  BUT, in my eyes he just didn't have it on Saturday.  His fastball was 86-88 mph for most of the game (according to the televised radar gun).  In the first inning, he ran it up to 93 but it was considerably less than that for the rest of the game.  During his 7th and final inning, he reached back for a little extra and got it up to 91 but severely lost his command while doing so.  On the positive side, his changeup was absolutely a plus pitch.  It was typically around 80 mph and had that bugs bunny changeup feel to it, where it just came in so slow that the hitters couldn't adjust to it.  It reminds me of the fantastic changeup that Tyler Clippard of the Nationals throws.  Go check out the video of Clippard on mlb.com if you want to get an idea of what Gausman's changeup looks like.


During his outing, he mixed in a few sliders and curveballs but couldn't get either one of them over for a strike.  The Stony Brook hitters weren't swinging at pitches out of the strike zone so he was forced to rely on his fastball and changeup.  If this is Gausman on a normal day, there is no way that the Orioles take him number four overall.  The stuff just wasn't good enough.  That leads me to believe that Gausman wasn't nearly at his best in this game.  He was forced to come back and pitch after throwing an inning in the first game, which may have been difficult for him.  Also, his arm may be tired after throwing 123 innings for LSU this season.  Remember, he's only 21 and his previous high in innings was only 89 the year before.  I have a suspicion that the innings caught up to him a little bit.


In the end, this is only 1 game at the end of a long season and doesn't have an impact on his future.  LSU ended up losing the series to Stony Brook and the small school from Long Island is off to the College World Series instead of traditional baseball powerhouse LSU.  For the sake of Kevin Gausman's Orioles career, I'd say that's a good thing.  He wouldn't have been doing himself any favors by throwing more innings in the College World Series.  The Orioles haven't decided whether they're going to let Gausman pitch any further this season.  If they were watching his start on Saturday, I'm sure Rick Peterson and the rest of the front office are going to use extreme caution and give him some time to rest.  I think the next time we see him on a mound will be at spring training next year, after which he will most likely be sent to Single A Frederick.  Enjoy the time off Kevin.  You've earned it.

Update: It has come to my attention that the radar gun readings being shown on ESPN were somewhere in the range of 4 mph slow, so take all of the velocity readings in this article with a huge grain of salt.