May 22, 2012

Dylan Bundy: A Sunday in Hagerstown

On Sunday I had the opportunity to witness Dylan Bundy's latest start for the Delmarva Shorebirds in Hagerstown against the Suns.  I sat in the third row right behind the plate so I had a really good view of the action.  Directly behind me were an Orioles scout (I didn't get his name), Parker Bridwell and Tim Berry who were charting the Shorebirds pitchers.  Bridwell and Berry are also starting pitchers for the Shorebirds, Bridwell even made some Orioles top prospect lists.  Since I'm not anything close to a scout and don't own a radar gun, all of my velocity readings came from the gun that Parker was holding.  It was certainly an interesting perspective to watch a game.  There was also a gaggle of scouts standing behind our section who I'm sure were all there to see Bundy.  Here's Bundy from my viewpoint.


From the opening pitch, Bundy didn't disappoint.  He started the game throwing only his fastball, which ranged from 95-98 mph.  The first batter flew out softly to center, so he started the 2nd batter Cutter Dykstra (yes, he's Lenny Dykstra's son) with a steady stream of fastballs as well.  Cutter fouled a couple off and worked a full count.  After throwing only fastballs to this point, he dropped a 75 mph curveball over the inner half that completely fooled the right handed Dykstra who couldn't take the bat off of his shoulder.  Strikeout looking on a very impressive front door curveball that looked like it broke over a foot down and away from him.  He threw a couple more fastballs to the next hitter, who lined out to center.  First inning completed, and the only curveball of the day.

The first hitter of the 2nd inning was the Suns most dangerous hitter, Matthew Skole.  Again, Bundy threw mostly fastballs but he mixed in a 87 mph changeup which had late downward movement.  Bundy struck him out swinging on a 97 mph fastball with a little cut action.  2 strikeouts through 4 batters.  The next batter saw all fastballs in the 96 mph range and flew out to center.  A couple of these fastballs also had cutting action.  J.P. Ramirez was up next, and Bundy started him with two 97 mph fastballs before going to the changeup.  The change came in at 88, but Ramirez was either ready for it or his bat speed was perfect for a 88 mph change instead of a 97 mph fastball (that's what the scout said anyway.)  Ramirez timed it up perfectly and hit a deep fly to right field.  Shorebirds right fielder Brenden Webb had to make a jumping catch at the top of the wall in right to prevent extra bases or possibly a home run.  Sadly, this was the last offspeed pitch Bundy would throw all afternoon.  2 innings completed, no base runners.

In the third inning, Bundy faced the bottom third of the Suns lineup and overpowered them solely with his fastball.  He threw an inside fastball to the first hitter, who broke his bat and hit a soft one hopper to shortstop for the out.  He struck out the second batter, Cole Leonida swinging on all fastballs.  The 9th batter in the order, Billy Burns, was completely overmatched in his at bat.  He swung through the first two fastballs before hitting a high chopper over the mound.  Bundy made a nice athletic play going behind the mound on the one hopper for the out.  Third inning completed, still no base runners.

The top of the lineup was due up in the fourth as Bundy had still faced the minimum number of batters.  I'm not sure why but Bundy must have decided that he only needed his fastball at this point, as that's all he threw.  The leadoff batter Brian Goodwin hit a long fly ball to the warning track in left center that left fielder Kyle Hoppy tracked down.  Dykstra was up next and he grounded the first pitch he saw to second base for the out.  The inning ended when Martinson hit a soft liner that right fielder Brenden Webb fielded easily.  All fastballs this inning, still no base runners.

Everyone knew going into the game that Bundy was only going to throw 5 innings, so this was his last inning no matter what happened.  The best looking hitter in the game to me was the Suns cleanup man Matthew Skole, who happened to be up to lead off the 5th.  Skole was the Nationals 5th round pick in the 2011 draft out of Georgia Tech.  He took a 95 mph fastball from Bundy and lined it over the right fielder's head for a double.  This would be the only hit that Bundy would give up on the afternoon, and was the first base runner he allowed.  Even though the Suns were down 3-0 at this point, they decided to have their number 5 hitter bunt Skole over to third.  Again, Bundy looked very athletic coming over toward the third base line to field the bunt and throwing the batter out at first.  I guess we shouldn't be surprised but Bundy looks like a very good fielder.  Since J.P. Ramirez had taken Bundy to the wall in right his last at bat, Bundy wanted to back him off the plate in this at bat.  Unfortunately, he missed off the plate inside and hit him.  First and third, one out. 

This was the first time all day that Bundy was in trouble, so maybe he'd use his devastating curveball and still work in progress changeup to get out of it, right?  Bundy must not think that he needs those pitches to get out of trouble because he threw all fastballs to the next hitter.  I guess if I had a fastball as great as Bundy's, I would too.  He threw 96 and 97 mph fastballs to the next hitter.  A couple showed some nice arm side run, and all of of them had late life.  Brett Newsome couldn't catch up to them and struck out swinging on a high fastball.  The catcher Leonida was up next with two down and runners still on first and third.  Bundy knew this was the end of his outing, and reached back for a little more on the 0-2 count firing his fastest pitch of the day to get the hitter to ground weakly to short.  His last pitch of the day registered 99 mph on the gun, and is reminiscent of what Justin Verlander does often towards the end of his outings.  It was pretty impressive to see that Bundy had even more in the tank to turn to when he was in trouble and wanted to get out of the inning.  The soft groundball ended the inning and also Bundy's day on the mound.


On the day, Bundy threw 5 innings with 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 HBP, 4 strikeouts, and 0 walks.  He didn't allow a base runner until the 5th inning when he allowed a double and hit a batter.  His fastball command was very good, and he could clearly dominate the Low A Hagerstown hitters solely with the fastball mostly 95-98 mph.  The disappointing part of his outing from a development standpoint was the fact that he only threw 1 curveball and 2 changeups.  The one curveball that he threw was an absolutely devastating wipeout pitch that he threw for a strike.  I would have loved to see him bury a few in the dirt to see if the Suns hitters would swing over the top of it.  Rick Peterson, the Orioles director of pitching development has been encouraging Bundy to use more of his secondary pitches so it's hard to say why he didn't use them.  Peterson seems to think that he doesn't use them because he doesn't need them to get hitters out.  That may be the case, but he needs to work on his secondary pitches in order to pitch in the majors.  If he doesn't feel the need to use them in Low A ball, move him to Frederick where he may need them more.

Even though Bundy has only thrown his fastball, curveball, and changeup this year, he apparently also has a slider.  He certainly hasn't needed it thus far, but it's exciting that he was even more weapons at his disposal when he does need them.  He only threw two changeups, one of which was foul tipped while the other was taken to the wall in right.  The pitch definitely has the potential to be a plus pitch for him with similar arm action to his fastball and late downward life.  In order to refine it, he just needs to throw it more often.

There is some talk of Bundy being moved up to Frederick to continue his season either now or after one more start.  I certainly feel that he's ready to be moved up after he's dominated Low A ball with a 0.00 ERA and 40 strikeouts to 2 walks in 30 innings.  He's only let up 5 hits in those 30 innings.  Just to further illuminate his dominance, he's struck out 40% of the hitters to face him this season.  That's 2 out of every 5 batters!  He'd have even more strikeouts this season if he didn't get everyone out.  If he actually let up a few hits, he'd have a chance to get more k's. 

More than his success though, I think it's the fact that he needs to be forced to use his secondary pitches that necessitates the promotion.  He knows that he has an electric fastball that would be effective against major league hitters right now.  However, a starting pitcher can't succeed in the majors with one pitch.  He needs to work on his changeup, curveball, and even his slider.  The development of his secondary offerings is really all that's standing in the way of him being a phenomenal pitcher.

All in all, Bundy definitely lived up to the hype.  His fastball is absolutely electric and he's almost certainly ready for the next challenge in his career.  If you have the chance to go see him pitch, it's definitely worth the price of admission.  I certainly will go see him again if I have the chance.  Maybe I'll see you there.

May 7, 2012

Do the O's Have the Best Bullpen in Baseball?

Going into Monday night's game against the Rangers, the Orioles surprisingly have the best record in baseball at 19-9.  They've gotten a great performance from the starting rotation as well as from many of the position players like Wieters, Davis and Reimold, which has led to the great start.  I'm not going to talk about any of that today though.  What I want to talk about is the great performance the Orioles have received from the bullpen so far this year.  For years, the Orioles bullpen has been terrible causing the team to lose games in the late innings that they should have won.  That hasn't been the case this year.

For starters, the team bullpen ERA is an unbelievable 1.41.  I can't really believe I'm typing this, but the Orioles are first in the league in bullpen ERA by far.  Just for comparison's sake, last year the team had a bullpen ERA of 4.18 which ranked 27th out of 30.  Now, there is no way that the Orioles are going to finish the season with a bullpen ERA under 2; it's just not going to happen.  So while it's great and we should enjoy it for now, the bullpen has gotten its fair share of luck so far.  The bullpen as a whole has a 3.03 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP.  The two ERA estimators scream that the regression is coming.  So while we know that this performance won't last the whole season, lets take a look at how we got here.

Jim Johnson has been the Orioles closer this year except for the few games he missed with food poisoning.  Johnson hasn't given up a run yet this year and is a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities.  It seems that he's adjusted to the closer's role quite nicely, and may add more credence to the sabermetric argument that any good pitcher can close.  With an outstanding 72.7% ground ball rate, Johnson's approach is more groundball centric than most closers.  Closers typically get many of their outs via the strikeout, but Johnson has success getting guys to beat the ball into the ground.  To get these groundballs, he's using his 2 seam fastball 75% of the time.  It seems to be working.  Johnson has a FIP/xFIP/SIERA of 2.64/3.17/2.33.

Pedro Strop has emerged this season and claimed the role of the Orioles set up man.  He even got a couple of saves when Johnson was in the hospital.  The Orioles acquired Strop towards the end of 2011 as the player to be named later in the Mike Gonzalez trade with the Rangers.  He has been coming at hitters primarily with a 2 seam fastball that he throws 55% of the time, with about 20% 4 seamers and 20% sliders mixed in.  The 2 seamer has been an extremely impressive and effective pitch for him.  He averages 96.7 mph with the pitch and has been getting a lot of swinging strikes it.  Overall, his swinging strike rate is an excellent 11%.  The only concern with Strop is keeping his walks under control; he's carrying a 3.71 BB/9.  For his career, he's at 5.08 BB/9.  If he can keep the walks under control with his dynamic stuff, he'll continue to be effective.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 3.19/3.14/3.07.

Matt Lindstrom is one of 3 Orioles relievers yet to give up an earned run this season.  Throwing his 95 mph heat most of the time, he has legitimately been excellent.  Following the Orioles bullpen theme, he's been throwing tons of sinkers, about 50% of the time.  Along with Darren O'Day, he's one of the two Oriole relievers to average over a strikeout per inning.  To support his 9.69 K/9 rate, he's also getting 10.9% swinging strikes, which is far above average.  Coming to the Orioles along with Jason Hammel in the offseason trade for Jeremy Guthrie, he has been more effective than even the most loyal O's fans would have believed.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 1.72/2.66/2.26.

Of the 3 Orioles relievers yet to give up an earned run, Luis Ayala has been doing it the most with smoke and mirrors.  Ayala has now pitched 15.2 innings without giving up an earned run.  However, his strike out rate of 5.17 K/9 doesn't support this kind of performance.  His walk rate is solid at 2.30 BB/9, but he hasn't been getting tons of groundballs either with a GB% of 49%.  That's above average but not spectacular.  So how's he been having this kind of success, you ask?  Well, the luck dragons have been awfully kind so far.  Ayala has a tiny .208 BABIP, a 93% LOB%, and a 0.0% HR/FB%.  Those marks just can't last throughout the season.  He also only has a 5.3% swinging strike rate.  Look out for some regression for Ayala in the near future.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 2.76/4.24/3.87.  His FIP looks good because he hasn't given up any homeruns yet.  The other two ERA estimators approximate the number of homeruns he should have given up based on his fly ball percentage, and show the chinks in the armor.

Darren O'Day has been under the radar this year, but he's been excellent.  Coming at hitters with a side-arm release point, he's been striking out 9.64 K/9 this year with a strong walk rate of only 2.57 BB/9.  His walk and strike out rates are almost exactly where they were last year, so there is some precedence for his success.  Like many of the Orioles relievers, he's a fastball, sinker, slider pitcher.  The difference with O'Day is that it's coming side-arm and his fastball is only 84 mph.  Nevertheless, he's had a lot of success so far.  He's getting 10.8% swinging strikes, and batters are swinging at 37.4% of his pitches out of the strike zone.  Look for his ERA to come up a little bit but he's been very good so far.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 2.81/3.05/2.59.

The lone lefty in the pen so far has been Troy Patton.  Even though he's been the only lefty in the pen, he hasn't been used to face only lefties.  He's faced 25 left handed hitters and 27 right handed hitters, so Buck is certainly not saving him for the difficult lefties late in the game.  Patton has only struck out 4 of the 52 hitters he's faced for a dismal 2.84 K/9.  He's only walked 2 batters so he's not giving up the free pass either.  Currently, he's only getting 7.5% swinging strikes so he's got some work to do on missing bats.  Troy hasn't distinguished himself yet and has some work to do if he wants to be a long term option in the pen.  He's got some leash because he's the only lefty but if he doesn't miss more bats he's going to be in trouble.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 3.82/4.19/4.25.

The last member of the pen is every Oriole fans favorite pitcher, Kevin Gregg.  Though he had a good series against the Red Sox, he has been dismal for the rest of the season.  Buck has pretty clearly decided that Gregg was the last man on the totem pole in the bullpen giving him only 8.2 innings while everyone else in the bullpen has pitched over 12.  The problem with Gregg's way of pitching is that he doesn't have faith in his stuff and he nibbles around the strike zone instead of attacking hitters in the strike zone.  That is still the case this year, and he's amassed an ugly 5.19 BB/9.  He does have 8 strike outs in his 8.2 innings so he is missing bats.  It's hard to believe that a year ago, Gregg was the Orioles closer.  There is no way he should ever get close to the role again.  Gregg has clearly defined himself as a below average reliever.  If he's making a small salary as the last man in the pen, that's fine.  When he's making $5.8 million to provide below average work, he's hurting the team.  We'll save the debate over what the Orioles should do with him for a different day.  His FIP/xFIP/SIERA is 5.03/5.41/4.16. 

As you can see, the Orioles have received some legitimately great performances out of their bullpen so far allowing them lead the league in bullpen ERA.  A large part of taking 5 out of 6 from the Yankees and Red Sox was due to the stellar work of the bullpen.  However, while the Orioles have gotten great performances from Strop, Lindstrom, O'Day, and Johnson, there is regression coming from guys like Ayala and Patton.  The Orioles enter play Monday night at 19-9 and with the best record in baseball, thanks to a great bullpen so far.  However, don't be shocked if the bullpen starts to give up some runs in the next few series.  They have 3 really tough opponents coming up in the Rangers, Rays, and Yankees.  As a whole, they're just not ready to be the best in baseball yet.  But enjoy it while you can O's fans.

May 1, 2012

MUST READ: Orioles Interview with ZiPS Creator Dan Szymborski

I don't normally post links to other people's work, but I really enjoyed Chris Stoner from Baltimore Sports and Life's interview with ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski.  They touch on many of the topics all Orioles fans are thinking about, including whether the team should re-sign or trade Adam Jones and if the Orioles should lock up Matt Wieters, and how much that would cost.

I'd urge you all to check it out.  Dan Szymborski is one of the brighter baseball minds out there, and Baltimore Sports and Life is a great place to talk about Maryland Sports and the Orioles.  You can read the interview here.